Tipping Point

Tipping points are critical thresholds in complex systems that can trigger sudden changes.

The term tipping point describes a critical threshold within complex systems, beyond which even small changes can lead to sudden, often irreversible, and qualitatively new dynamics. In climate research, tipping points are particularly significant, as their crossing can trigger self-reinforcing processes in the Earth system that are difficult or impossible to reverse. Examples of such tipping points include the melting of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets, the dieback of the Amazon rainforest, or the weakening of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation.

Tipping points are characterized by several distinctive features. On the one hand, they exhibit nonlinearity, as the system remains relatively unchanged for a long time before reaching a critical point at which the reactions occur abruptly. Furthermore, the state after crossing a tipping point is usually irreversible, meaning that new conditions persist even if the original factors are restored. The uncertainty regarding the exact thresholds of many tipping elements significantly complicates risk assessment.

For climate policy and society, reaching such tipping points has far-reaching and often catastrophic consequences. Already at a global warming of 1.5 °C, the risks of crossing central tipping points increase. These typically trigger other tipping elements, resulting in a cascading effect. This accelerates the negative impacts on ecosystems, the economy, and human society. For this reason, it is essential to take preventive measures and reduce emissions to minimize the risk of crossing such tipping points and to maintain the stability of the climate system.